Oblivion looms for Mahmoud Abbas
Over at Rootless Cosmopolitan, Mark Perry gives an insightful assessment of the prospects for the West's new plan for the Palestinians, and the likely fate of the West's client Palestinian ruler, Mahmoud Abbas.
In Perry's judgement, it is Hamas, not Abbas and his US backers, that is poised to prevail, decisively, in the battle for control of the occupied territories. Perry says that,
"By turning his back on the Palestinians in Gaza, ... even actively seeking their impoverishment in the United Nations (as he did, shamefully, on Friday, when his diplomats blocked efforts to seek a Security Council statement on the humanitarian situation there), Abu Mazen [Abbas] has set out to divide the Palestinian nation, to set it against itself. And that line, in the end, cannot be crossed. And the fact that Abu Mazen has crossed it will, in the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people, make all the difference. There is only one Palestine and now, Abu Mazen is not a part of it. "
Perry, an eminent security and foreign policy analyst, is Director of Conflicts Forum, an organisation working to foster an understanding of political Islam in the Middle East and facilitate a dialogue between Islamist groups and the West. The organisation produces some very useful written material which can really serve to broaden your understanding of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and the political landscapes from which they emerge. A few weeks ago I was lucky enough to meet Alastair Crooke, Perry's co-director, who gave me a lot of helpful info for a book on the West-Islamist relationship that I'm helping historian Mark Curtis to research. I probably learnt more in an hour's conversation with Crooke than I would have done in a day researching in the library. All in all, Conflicts Forum is a great resource. Highly recommended.
Labels: Israel/Palestine
4 Comments:
Perhaps Abbas is finished, but it does seem as though Hamas' popularity has plunged hugely since it took over Gaza (latest poll has them down at 14%).
Still, they're not exactly going to just disappear. Abbas can't really talk to them because his hands are tied - Israel and the U.S. have explicitly warned that the resumption of aid, the return of the stolen Palestinian money, an end to the diplomatic isolation and all the recent Israeli "gestures" will end in an instant the moment Fatah resumes cooperation with Hamas.
Israel could try to launch a military assault in Gaza to get rid of Hamas as a formal political force, but I doubt they're that silly.
The Palestinians want new elections, but those elections would essentially be meaningless since Hamas would boycott them - understandably, since even if they'd win they would not be allowed to govern (as the past year has shown). The elections would be for a "Palestinian Authority" without any real authority - it has whatever power Israel chooses to give it, and no more.
So all in all it's a pretty difficult situation, and I'm not at all sure how it's going to play out in the end. My bet is that Fatah will end up negotiating with Hamas, but I suppose we'll have to see.
p.s. about the Mark Curtis thing: cool! ;)
Alright there, young Jamie
If you read the Perry article you see that he basically doesn't trust these polls. Time will tell whether his assessment is right or not.
I think you're right that Abbas has made it almost impossible for himself to reconcile with Hamas. Perry says he'll either do that or leave the stage, but plainly thinks the latter is more likely, and I agree.
About Israeli military action - what's worse from their point of view? Going in with the associated risks, or being perceived as afraid of not going in because of the associated risks? Credibility is important to power, and Israel desperately needs some after last summer.
re.elections - apparently Hamas won't even be allowed to stand, so yes, they'd be a farce. Perhaps the electorate would boycott the polling stations on principle?
re.the future - things could drag on as they are for some time, but if Perry's right about the disgruntlement within Fatah then the Abbas clique could be ousted. A reconciliation with Hamas is then back on the cards. And to be honest, I think the West is going to be talking to Hamas at some point in the next few months/years anyway. Its inevitable.
The elections would be a farce, but I'm not sure that the Palestinians would boycott them en masse, at least beyond the Hamas constituency. I know Perry doesn't put much faith in the recent polls, but about four or five have come out now and they all show the same thing: a majority of Palestinians want new elections, and only a significant minority would vote for Hamas.
As for Israeli military action - the thing is that even if the IDF somehow managed to destroy Hamas as a formal political force, Hamas would simply return to being the clandestine guerrila force it was before the elections, more radical and extreme than ever. I think a return to the suicide bombing campaigns would be likely, as the moderates within the movement will have (and already have) lost ground to the hardliners.
I guess it depends on what Israel's objectives and guiding motivations are. If Israel is simply trying to crush the danger of a Hamas 'peace offensive', and return to the policy of managing the occupation with a compliant Fatah enforcer (as Amira Hass writes here), then I suppose an assault on Gaza could well be judged worth the risk. For now, at least, Israel seems content to wait it out. Why rush? It's not Israelis who are "almost completely" dependent on external aid for survival, after all.
sure, the polls are consistent, but if the flaws Perry sees in them consistently arise then they'll be consistently wrong. I'd be interested to know more about what he bases this scepticism on.
re.Hamas turning more hardline - quite right, and the other prospect is even worse. During Oslo Israel was warned that if it didn't deal fairly with the Palestinians via Fatah then Hamas was waiting in the wings. Now the warning is that its al Qaeda waiting behind Hamas, raising possibilities that don't bear contemplation.
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