Syria In The Crosshairs

Middle East expert Juan Cole writes "The Syrians found Saddam Hussein's half-brother in Beirut and handed him over to the US. (If there is an Arab city where US intelligence ought to have been able to find a high Iraqi official by itself without help from Syria, it should have been Beirut)."

This is being seen as a concession to the severe pressure that's being exerted upon Syria by the US and others. Last week Syria pulled back its troops in Lebanon following the furore over the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, in which Damascus has been implicated. Though Syria may well be guilty of what its accused of there seems to be little conclusive evidence at present, and those making the accusations happen to be the ones with the most to gain from doing so.

As in the run-up to the Iraq war, its worth taking a step back from the diplomatic manoeuvring and asking whether there's anything Syria can do to placate its accusers, or whether one demand for better behaviour will follow another until we get to a point where the US can say it has no choice but to take some form of action; rather like the US/UK taking the "UN route" in 2002-2003 when in fact the outcome of that charade had been determined long before.

In the last few hours the Lebanese government, widely seen as a puppet of Syria, has resigned under opposition pressure. Syrian troops entered Lebanon in the mid seventies to intervene in the civil war. They’ve remained there ever since and Syria has continued to exert its influence on the nominally democratic and sovereign government, ostensibly to provide security and prevent civil war. Syed Saleem Shahzad gives some good background at Asia Times Online.

This is of course despicable behaviour on the part of Syria. Imperialist, interfering in another countries affairs, contrary to the will of the international community and so on. The US and its allies certainly won’t be standing for it any longer. Meanwhile, in neighbouring Iraq, the US government exerts decisive control over the nominally democratic and sovereign government, and retains a massive troop presence ostensibly to provide security and prevent civil war. This is completely different.

It seems that every concession by Syria is followed by the pressure being ratcheted up a notch. The question is where it ends.